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石材行業還有哪些市場待開發

2015/11/11 14:09:52

新型城鎮化

將為石材業帶來16年發展期

<中國去年的城鎮化率大概是53%,要達到70%的中等發達國家水平,至少還要16年。這意味著,傳統的工程裝修市場還有16年發展期。

石材行業在過去兩年以來過得并不痛快,在復雜多變的國際形勢下,隨著國內經濟穩中趨緩的態勢不斷延續,石材行業面臨的國內外環境并沒有大的改觀,市場環境日趨嚴峻。根據最新發布的10月份“中國·水頭石材指數”月景氣分析報告顯示,受國內外經濟大環境的影響,傳統石材出口市場近期實現增幅上升的可能性較小,國內外市場需求稍有抑制,訂單合同較上月稍微減少,企業經濟效益微幅下調,10月份石材行業整體景氣指數延續上月略微下滑的態勢。

  在如此的煎熬之下,“緊跟形勢,抱團發展”也便成了石材業的訴求。11月8日,第三屆水頭國際石材論壇現場人頭攢動。國內外石材人齊聚一堂,共享智慧盛宴。除了同行業間的交流外,業內專家點撥、解讀經濟形勢和行業趨勢,也讓層層迷霧的石材業漸漸明朗。

傳統工裝市場還有16年發展期

  “其實,令石材人擔心的2008年金融危機并沒有對市場造成多大影響,2009年-2010年,行業仍處在上升階段。但到2012年,石材業增速開始回落,到今年9月增速回落到10%的水平。”中國石材協會會長鄒傳勝分析,盡管國內石材行業還處在中高速增長階段,但行業下行壓力增大。

  中國的區域發展戰略已經從東、中、西部發展戰略升級到京津冀聯動、長江經濟帶、絲綢之路經濟帶、海上絲綢之路經濟帶發展戰略,這給石材行業和企業提出了新的發展課題。

“過去30年,城鎮化給石材行業帶來非常好的契機,石材產量和銷售也一直在增長。”鄒傳勝說,中國去年的城鎮化率大概是53%,要達到70%的中等發達國家水平,至少還要16年。這意味著,傳統的工程裝修市場還有16年發展期。

那么,在這16年里,還有哪些市場是石材行業有待開發的呢?鄒傳勝認為,家裝市場是未來的主流。“從統計數據看,規模以上零售市場里面,建筑與裝潢材料零售總額的增幅一直保持穩定增長。即使是今年房地產市場不好,建筑與裝潢材料在零售市場上總額依然保持著12%的增幅。”

鄒傳勝給石材人算了一筆賬。根據2012年統計年報,國家城鎮人口71182萬人,政府工作報告人均住房32.9平方米,則住房保有量是234.2億平方米。如果按照國家中等戶型100平方米一套來算,房屋保有量就有2億多套。“家裝市場擁有潛在、巨大的石材需求,16年稍縱即逝,企業如果不抓緊轉型,很快會陷入被動。”鄒傳勝說,“石材產業要從以工裝為主向工裝與家裝并重轉型。”

密集批復基建項目釋放穩增長信號

  宏觀經濟形勢的波動,時刻影響著石材產業的景氣起伏。在朱孟楠看來,中國目前的宏觀經濟形勢壓力頗大。“改革開放30多年來,中國GDP增長平均數是9%,一直到今年不斷出現重心向下調整的態勢,重心下移,經濟運行壓力很大。”

不過,他認為企業應該對整體形勢保持樂觀。他說,黨的十八屆三中全會以來,中國政府出臺了一系列經濟刺激政策,正是國內經濟發展最強大的動力。

據朱孟楠透露,在海關總署召開的有關2013年一季度我國進出口情況發布會上有數據顯示,2012年第四季度國家發改委批復了總額約7萬億元的投資項目,重點涉及軌道交通、公路、機場等基建項目,這些都是和石材行業息息相關的大項目。

2014年,政策發力帶來的市場刺激愈加明顯。今年10月16日到11月5日的21天時間內,國家發改委先后批復了16條鐵路和5個機場的大項目,這21個項目總投資額達到6933.74億元。朱孟楠說,國家發改委密集批復基建項目,以對沖房地產等領域的疲軟,釋放出明顯的穩增長意圖。

朱孟楠對宏觀經濟大環境十分樂觀。他表示,1981年到1994年是國內經濟恢復性增長時期,1994年到2012年是經濟崛起時期。在接下去的20年內,如果中國經濟突破發展瓶頸,那么2012年-2032年將是中國經濟的騰飛時期。

新型城鎮化將為裝飾產業創造巨大需求

“雖然經濟下行壓力增大,但裝飾行業協會發展態勢依然強勁。去年全行業總量是2.96萬億元,比上年度同比增長12%。”在經濟形勢不景氣的情況下,朱時均的一席話無疑讓大家信心一振。

  但在看到增速的同時,今年裝飾行業發展形勢放緩的現實也不得不引起關注。

  “過去十幾年,裝飾行業一直保持高速發展,直到2013年,在經濟發展放緩的情況下,任何一個產業都受到宏觀政策的影響,裝飾產業也不例外。”朱時均說,在過去幾個月,他走訪了多家知名裝飾企業,并從企業負責人處得知目前市場情況并不樂觀。

“今年三四月,做工裝的企業就很憂慮,感覺發展前景有問題;到五六月份,大家緩了一口氣,略有起色;而到八九月份,形勢急轉直下。”他說,明年對部分企業而言,可能不只是增速放緩,而是負增長的問題。

  即便如此,他仍然看好裝飾行業的前景。“城市化率每年提高1個百分點就帶來1300萬城鎮人口,這1300萬人需要住房、娛樂設施、餐廳等,就會帶來源源不斷的市場。”

  據介紹,兩年前,中裝協曾作了一個課題研究,研究預測:未來3年,中國裝飾市場存量在1.5萬億元到1.8萬億元,主要來自于建筑改建、擴建、功能的轉換等,增量市場將達到1.6萬億元到2.1萬億元。“裝飾行業未來發展可用三句話來形容:發展壓力大,明年形勢不樂觀;具有長期的成長空間;還有強大的需求支撐。”朱時均說。

“好文化”才能讓企業持久發展

這兩年來,如何挖掘石材文化內涵成為時興話題,石材文化營銷方興未艾。

為什么要談石材文化?“我認為傳統石材產業轉型升級的最終歸屬、最終方法就是產業文化,也就是石材文化。”劉良如此回答。

  他說,目前傳統石材產業在轉型升級過程中,難免會碰到一些問題和困惑,首先是企業應該轉型還是升級。其次,企業是做大還是做強?企業如何避免誘惑,專注發展。他認為,企業應該腳踏實地,切勿好高騖遠,先做大,專注做事,再尋求做強。轉型是一個質的變化,升級則是一個循序漸進的過程,是有層次、有版本可言的。

  “我認為有4個版本,1.0是好產品,產品是升級的基礎;2.0是好企業,好企業支撐好產品;3.0是好品牌,做企業必須做品牌,這樣才能創造藍海,脫離價格戰;4.0版本即是好文化,也就是產業文化。”劉良說,只有好的文化才能實現傳承,才能讓企業、全產業持久發展。而目前,英良還處在循序漸進的升級過程中。

劉良還表示,講文化不能天馬行空,必須立足在產業基礎上,建立在實體經濟上。英良目前正在籌辦“印象五號”石文化博物館,作為傳播石文化的載體。

據介紹,除了成立專業博物館之外,英良集團還和廈門大學人類學教授合作編撰《石紀》,即人類與石材的文明發展史,探求石文化的深刻內涵,為石材文化添磚加瓦。

房地產行業或進入穩定發展期

  楊平宇判斷,分類調控、分城施策仍然會是今年房地產調控的主基調。李克強總理在2014年政府工作報告中指出:“針對不同城市情況分類調控,增加中小套商品房和共有產權住房的供應,抑制投機投資性需求,促進房地產市場持續健康發展。”在此背景下,房地產行業限購政策截至目前已大范圍退出,政策也相應放開。

他指出,中國經濟將由高速增長期向中高速增長期轉變。盡管經濟增速放緩,但經濟結構調整、產業轉型升級、體制改革進入深水區等因素,都有利于推動房地產行業向精細化、服務化方向發展,房地產行業將在經濟發展和新型城鎮化中繼續發揮重要作用。

當前,多地取消行政限購后,在央行放開限貸后,房地產成交量有所回升,但仍未出現銷售全面好轉的實質性變化。他預測,未來政府將維持分類調控的主基調,基于此,房地產市場將更多地呈現區域化、差異化特點;房地產供給和需求將更多地由市場因素決定,行業有望進入穩定發展階段。

New urbanization

Will bring 16 years period of development for the stone industry

China last year's urbanization rate is about 53%, to reach 70% of the level of moderately developed countries, it will take at least 16 years. This means that the traditional engineering decoration market, there are 16 years period of development.

Stone industry in the past two years did not have, in the complicated and changeable international situation, with the slowdown in domestic economic steady trend continues, stone industry faces the domestic and foreign environment did not change much, the market environment is becoming more and more serious. According to the latest release of "October Chinese - Shuitou index" month boom analysis report showed that, influenced by the international and domestic economic environment, the traditional stone export market growth realized in the near future less likely to rise, the domestic and international market demand slightly inhibited, relatively on the month order contract slightly reduced, the economic efficiency of enterprises closed down, October stone industry overall boom index trend continuation down slightly from last month.

Under such suffering, "closely follow the situation, developing together" also became a stone industry demand. In November 8th, the third session of the head stone International Forum scene bobs. Domestic and foreign stone together, sharing wisdom feast. In addition to the inter industry exchanges, industry experts advice, interpretation of the economic situation and the trend of industry, but also to let the layers of dense fog in the stone industry gradually clear.

Traditional decoration market and 16 year development period

"In fact, make stone people worried about the financial crisis in 2008 and did not cause much impact on the market, in 2009 -2010 years, the industry is still in the rising stage. But by 2012, the stone industry growth rate began to decline, in September of this year the growth rate dropped to 10% level." Analysis of Chinese stone association president Zou Chuansheng, although the domestic stone industry is still in the stage of high-speed growth, but the industry downward pressure increases.

The strategy of regional development China has from the East, medium, western development strategy to upgrade to the Beijing Tianjin Hebei linkage, the Yangtze River economic belt, Silk Road Economic Belt, Silk Road on the Sea Economic Zone Development Strategy, which put forward new development issues to the stone industry and enterprise.

"Over the past 30 years, the town bring great opportunity to the stone industry, stone production and sales have been growing." Zou Chuansheng said, Chinese last year's urbanization rate is about 53%, to reach 70% of the level of moderately developed countries, it will take at least 16 years. This means that the traditional engineering decoration market, there are 16 years period of development.

So, in this 16 years, what the market is stone industry to be developed? Zou Chuansheng thinks, the home market is the mainstream of the future. "Look from statistical data, the above scale retail market, building and decoration materials retail sales growth has maintained steady growth. Even this year the real estate market is not good, building and decoration materials in the retail market is still maintained a 12% increase in total."

Zou Chuansheng calculated brushstroke Zhang to stone people. According to the annual report 2012 statistics, the national urban population of 711820000 people, the government work report per 32.9 square meters of housing, housing ownership is 23420000000 square meters. If in accordance with the national secondary apartment layout a 100 square meters of housing ownership to count, there are 2 million sets. "Jiezhuang market has huge potential, demand for stone, 16 years of transient, if the enterprise does not pay close attention to the transformation, will soon fall into a passive." Zou Chuansheng said, "the stone industry to to tooling and pay equal attention to Jiezhuang transition from tooling."

Intensive approved infrastructure projects to release the steady growth of signal

Macroeconomic volatility, always affects the stone industry boom fluctuation. In Zhu Mengnan view, the current macroeconomic situation China considerable pressure. "30 years of reform and opening up, Chinese GDP growth, the average was 9%, this year has been to appear constantly center of gravity downward adjustment of economic operation situation, center of gravity down, a lot of pressure."

However, he believes that enterprises should be the overall situation of optimism. He said, the party since the Third Plenary Session of the eighteen, China government promulgated a series of policies to stimulate the economy, it is the most powerful force for the development of the domestic economy.

According to Zhu Mengnan, held in the General Administration of Customs on 2013 a quarter of China's import and export situation conference data shows, the fourth quarter of 2012, the national development and Reform Commission approved a total of about 7 yuan of investment projects, mainly relates to rail transportation, highway, airport and other infrastructure projects, these are closely linked and stone industry a big project.

In 2014, policy force brought more obvious market stimulation. This year in October 16th to November 5th of 21 days, the national development and Reform Commission has approved 16 railways and 5 airport project, the 21 projects a total investment of 693374000000 yuan. Zhu Mengnan said, the national development and Reform Commission intensive approved infrastructure projects to hedge, weak real estate fields, release the obvious intention of steady growth.

Zhu Mengnan is very optimistic about the macro economic environment. He said, 1981 to 1994 is the domestic economic recovery growth period, 1994 to 2012 is the period of economic rise. In the next 20 years, if China economic breakthrough development bottleneck, so in 2012 -2032 years will be China economic take-off period.

New urbanization will create a huge demand for decoration industry

"Although the economy downward pressure increase, but the decoration industry association development trend is still strong. Last year the industry total amount is 2.96 yuan, grow 12% than last year over year." In the economic situation downturn, Zhu Shijun's no doubt let everyone confidence vibration.

But after seeing the growth rate at the same time, this year's decoration industry development situation of slowdown in reality also had cause for concern.

"In the past ten years, decoration industry has maintained rapid development, until 2013, in the economic slowdown situation, any one industry be affected by macroeconomic policies, decoration industry is no exception." Zhu Shijun said that in the past few months, he visited many famous enterprises, and from the person in charge of the enterprise that the current market situation is not optimistic. "This year, three or four months, work clothing enterprise is very anxious, has the development prospects of feeling; to five or six months, we breathe a sigh of relief, slightly better; and to the eight or nine month, the situation worsened." He said that next year on the part of enterprises, may not just the slowdown, but negative growth problems.

Even so, he is still optimistic about the prospects for decoration industry. "Urbanization rate of annual increase of 1 percentage points would bring 13000000 urban population, the 13000000 people in need of housing, entertainment facilities, restaurants, will bring a steady stream of market."

According to introduction, two years ago, Chinese dress has made a research and Study on prediction: the next 3 years, China's stock market to the decoration 1.8 trillion yuan in 1.5 trillion yuan, mainly from the building renovation and expansion, the function of the transfer, the incremental market will reach 1.6 yuan to 2.1 yuan. "Decoration industry development in the future can use three words to describe: development pressure, next year the situation is not optimistic; has a long-term growth space; there is a strong demand for support." Zhu Shijun said.

"Good culture" can make enterprises sustainable development

These two years, how to excavate the cultural connotation of becoming the popular topic of stone, stone culture marketing be just unfolding.

Why should we talk about stone culture? "I think the ultimate attribution, traditional stone industrial transformation and upgrading of the final method is to culture industry, also is the stone culture." Liu Liang is so answer.

He said, at present, the traditional stone industry in the process of transformation and upgrading, will inevitably encounter some problems and puzzles, first is the enterprise should transition or upgrade. Secondly, the enterprise is bigger or stronger? Enterprises how to avoid temptation, focus on the development of. He thinks, the enterprise should stand on solid ground, do not aim too high, the first major, focus, and then seek a stronger. The transformation is a qualitative change, upgrade is a gradual process, there is a hierarchy, with version at all.

"I think there are 4 version, 1 is a good product, the product is the upgrading of foundation; 2 is a good business, good business support good products; 3 is a good brand, do enterprise must do brand, so as to create blue ocean, from the price war; the 4 version is good culture, is also the industry culture." Liu Liang said, only good culture can achieve inheritance, could let enterprises, the whole industry sustainable development. At present, English is still in the process of benign upgrade step by step in.

Liu Liang also said, speaking culture cannot be a powerful and unconstrained style, must be based on the industry foundation, built on the real economy. Yingliang is currently preparing for a "impression of No. five" stone culture museum, as the carrier of the dissemination of stone culture.

According to the introduction, in addition to the establishment of professional museum, Ying Liang group has worked with the Xiamen University anthropology professor Shi Ji "compilation", namely, the history of the development of human civilization and the stone, to explore the profound meaning of stone culture, do what little one can to help for the stone culture.

The real estate industry or into the stable development period

Stone industry and the real estate industry is closely related to. Therefore, the real estate trend, has also been a lot of people concerned about the weather vane of stone. Look in Yang Pingyu, although the speed of development and the development path of policy regulation will temporarily change the real estate industry, but the development direction and mode of the real estate industry will still follow the market go.

Yang Pingyu judgment, classification regulation, the city policy will still be the main tone of this year the real estate regulation. Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in the government work report of 2014: "in view of the different urban classification regulation, increase the medium and small commercial housing units and common property right of housing supply, curb speculative investment demand, and promote the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market." Under this background, the real estate industry is restricted to buy policy up to now has a large range of exit, policy accordingly open.

He pointed out that, China economy will change from a period of rapid growth to high-speed growth period. Despite the economic slowdown, but the economic structure adjustment, industrial restructuring and upgrading, system reform enters deep water area and other factors, are conducive to promoting the development of the real estate industry to refinement, service orientation, the real estate industry will continue to play an important role in the economic development and new urbanization.

At present, to cancel the administrative purchase, in opening up the central bank limited credit, real estate turnover rebounded, but still does not appear substantial changes in sales overall improvement. He predicted, the future government will maintain the main tone, classification regulation based on this, the real estate market will be more present, characteristics of regional differences; real estate supply and demand will be more by the market factors, the industry is expected to enter the stage of stable development.

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